Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 18.284237 20.842101 23.593633 26.769288 30.328971 34.191557 38.695637
2025-02-02 14.777108 18.310308 22.399060 27.462880 33.547128 40.602355 49.382357
2025-02-09 12.602421 16.484756 21.194144 27.294794 34.952554 44.207460 56.196481
2025-02-16 10.837390 14.885307 20.007313 26.913152 35.922523 47.212167 62.355712
2025-02-23 9.675994 13.864275 19.360363 27.028575 37.365857 50.721100 69.166633
2025-03-02 8.794609 13.097427 18.933774 27.332389 38.992266 54.472122 76.413683
2025-03-09 7.982033 12.324736 18.399726 27.395881 40.228461 57.695750 83.046834
2025-03-16 7.189971 11.492764 17.691743 27.124579 40.928706 60.163972 88.705080
2025-03-23 6.648597 10.973086 17.374614 27.361566 42.321577 63.615694 95.849555
2025-03-30 6.329374 10.757736 17.477731 28.202261 44.610477 68.418714 105.111892
2025-04-06 5.785146 10.134366 16.904271 27.961653 45.246449 70.818469 110.950527
2025-04-13 5.051068 9.134304 15.662007 26.584776 44.044561 70.399865 112.541123
2025-04-20 4.804372 8.934112 15.692046 27.240780 46.061977 74.969807 121.941789
2025-04-27 4.584096 8.759623 15.749215 27.939846 48.181348 79.793354 131.956378
2025-05-04 4.227135 8.309844 15.306999 27.770978 48.868156 82.385451 138.571112
2025-05-11 3.868176 7.822815 14.761469 27.382663 49.155804 84.335087 144.226410
2025-05-18 3.624905 7.526886 14.523968 27.500124 50.280838 87.661976 152.209473
2025-05-25 3.431384 7.307343 14.403816 27.808681 51.735470 91.575071 161.291313
2025-06-01 3.218993 7.031599 14.159308 27.873202 52.759392 94.802276 169.352764
2025-06-08 2.979252 6.679364 13.745553 27.597595 53.158435 96.978216 175.719866
2025-06-15 2.825036 6.486968 13.618099 27.838338 54.481453 100.768258 184.951292
2025-06-22 2.754771 6.463123 13.812139 28.692323 56.952905 106.633428 197.959050
2025-06-29 2.563695 6.165014 13.446204 28.447915 57.382226 108.933102 204.848660